Coherent correction of inconsistent conditional probability assessments

A. Capotorti, G.Regoli.

In this paper we suggest a procedure to adjust an incoherent conditional probability assessment given on a partial domain. We look for a solution that tries to attain two separate goals: on one hand the solution should be as close as possible to the initial assessments, on the other hand we do not want to insert more information than we had at the beginning. The first goal is achieved by minimizing an appropriately defined distance among assessments, while for the second we look for a “maximum entropy” like solution.

PDF full paper