PROCEEDINGS IPMU '08

Risk Prediction in a Space-Time Markov Model applied to Propagating Contamination

Hélène Soubaras

Our concern is crisis situations involving
propagating threats such as
toxic clouds, pandemics, contamination,
flows or oil slicks. Emergency
planning may be then complex, and
decision-making support (DS) tools
based on risk criteria can be helpful.
The evaluation of quantitative risk
needs for a mathematical model taking
into account either the cost to pay if a
given point is contaminated (damage,
casualties...), either the associated
probability.
The present work proposes original
mathematical expressions for a recursive
implementation of the mid-term
predicted risk at each point of the
threatened area.
An application of the proposed risk
prediction model is shown on a dangerous
cloud, with numerical results.

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